CAPITALEXIT :  YES, WE LEAVE!

La Nouvelle Vie Réelle

Daniel Paquet

                                                              

email :  dpaquet1871@gmail.com

MONTREAL - « The result of the UK referendum triggered a sharp but orderly repricing of a number of asset classes in global financial markets. (…)

The prolonged uncertainty – compounded by the complexity of the negotiations and various political challenges – is already weighing on confidence and will likely lead to a postponement of major economic decisions, especially on business investment.  These confidence effects, while concentrated in the UK and the EU, may extend to other parts of the world, including the United States and Canada. (…)

While uncertainty associated with Brexit may weigh on confidence and cloud the outlook for business prospects, investment is expected to pick up in the second half of 2016 as the drag from energy investment and the strong US dollar diminishes, domestic demand remains solid and global growth improves.”  (Bank of Canada, Global Economy, Monetary Policy Report, Ottawa, July 2016, pages 1-3).

The French President, François Hollande, “… urged Theresa May, the new British prime minister, to notify the EU of the UK’s exit as soon as possible, so as to provide greater certainty. (…)

[Also, he] has attacked José Manuel Barroso’s decision to join Goldman Sachs, claiming, that the former EU commission president’s ‘morally unacceptable’ move, demonstrated the need to rein in finance. (…)

But in some of his most striking comments, Mr. Hollande highlighted Goldman’s role in arranging contentious derivatives’ trades for Greece, which helped Athens massage its public finances at a time when Mr. Barroso led the commission.”  (Chassany, Anne-Sylvaine, Hollande blasts Barroso for Goldman move, Financial Times, New York, Friday 15 July 2016, page 3).

There was no really much room for certainty in the UE these days.  One thing is of course obvious:  Trump is now the Republican Party crowned candidate for U.S. Presidency.  Presently, the task is:  to cool down the most outrageous and irritating sections of his program; while at the same time avoiding Hillary Clinton going overboard to accommodate her supporters attracted by governmental measures more to the left (sic) on the political spectrum.  The choice would be more ‘common sense (!)’ for US voters.  “In un’epoca sempre più votata all chiusura dei confini (vedi i ‘sudditi’ di Sua Maesta con la Brexit) ed alla ‘folia’ del diverso/immigrato (vedi Trump con il suo ‘muro’ al confine col Messico).

Nel vecchio continente, il trend è sotto gli occhi di tutti:  le forze anti-sistema intercettano una fetta sempre più ampia di popolazione indignata con i partiti  tradizionali, scettica sulle politiche di recoglienza dei refugiati, preocccupata per l’aumento della criminalità ed il peso crescento dell’ Islam [sic].”  (Giordano, Vittorio, Il mondo alza le barricate, Trudeau apre le porte, Il Cittadino Canadese, Montréal, 6 Lugio 2016, page 3).

As we can see, UE is rather lukewarm with peoples’ expectations to break away from larger ensembles, such as the European Union from, or NAFTA for instance; but it does not mean that it will hold referendum in just any cases, unless populations strongly fight for it.

“Criticized by his own Socialist camp for granting €40bn in tax breaks to companies and seeking to reform labour rules to make them less rigid, Mr.Hollande said his pro-business policies were finally starting to pay-off.” (Chassany, page 3).

The former EU President, Mr. Barroso, “who led the commission for a decade, told the FT (Financial Times) he would try to ‘mitigate the negative effects’ of the UK’s decision to leave the EU. (…)

If the UK loses access to the single market, overseas banks may need to move parts of their large European businesses out of London.  In plain English, it means:  blackmail!

Nevertheless, Goldman said its decision to hire Mr. Barroso as chairman of Goldman Sachs International  ‘has nothing to do with the Brexit vote ‘and that discussions had begun when campaign for Britain to remain in the EU was thought likely to succeed. He added that the former commission chief would ‘help advise our clients in Europe and around the world on a range of issues’.

France’s harsh criticism of Mr. Barroso comes as Mr. Hollande’s so-called socialist government seeks to woo London bankers to Paris will generous tax breaks.”  (Chassany, page 3).

“Una cosa è certa:  piaccia o non piaccia, dall’ 11 settembre, la ‘strategia della tensione’ adottata dall’ Occidente  non ha pagato.  Può apparire scomoda, rischiosa, ma se fosse proprio la ‘distensione inclusiva’, sulla quale Trudeau sta costruendo le sue fortune, la chiave di volta per un nuovo ordine mondiale? » (Giordano, page 3).

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